Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
4 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
378 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Rhea Seehorn
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-RHE
Cluster 2
Will Keri Russell win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Keri Russell win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Keri Russell
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-KER
Cluster 3
Will Zendaya win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Zendaya win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Zendaya
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-ZEN
Cluster 4
Will Carrie Coon win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Carrie Coon win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Carrie Coon
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-CAR
Analysis
The market is pricing a 21% chance that Rhea Seehorn wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 ceremony. This probability reflects her current position relative to other contenders, based on factors like her recent television roles, industry visibility, and historical voting patterns. The main drivers of this estimate are her eligibility status for the current Emmy cycle and the strength of competing performances across major prestige dramas. The resolution will occur at the Emmy Awards ceremony when votes are tallied and announced, which typically happens in September. Market-based probabilities like this incorporate collective assessments of her chances versus other actresses like Keri Russell and Zendaya, weighted by betting activity and historical precedent from previous Emmy voting outcomes.
- ›Rhea Seehorn's primary eligible television role and the critical reception of that performance during the 2025-2026 Emmy eligibility window
- ›The competitive field of other Drama Actress nominees and their respective recognition trajectories this season
- ›Historical Emmy voting patterns for performers in similar career positions and nomination frequency
- ›The total number of eligible actresses competing and typical win probability distributions across nominees
- ›Emmy Awards ceremony date and official nomination announcement, which will provide concrete competitive context
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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