Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29
5 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Rhea Seehorn
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-RHE
Cluster 2
Will Keri Russell win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Keri Russell win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Keri Russell
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-KER
Cluster 3
Will Zendaya win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Zendaya win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Zendaya
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-ZEN
Cluster 4
Will Michelle Pfeiffer win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Michelle Pfeiffer win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Michelle Pfeiffer
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-MIC
Cluster 5
Will Tie win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYDACTR-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This probability indicates a 1-in-5 chance that Rhea Seehorn wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 ceremony. The 19% assessment reflects her track record as a four-time Emmy nominee (primarily for Better Call Saul) against a competitive field that includes established contenders. Her probability would likely rise if her current or recent television work receives significant critical acclaim and guild recognition during the 2026 eligibility period, or fall if competing actresses from higher-profile productions dominate the nominations conversation. The Emmy Awards nomination announcement, typically in July for a September ceremony, will be the critical moment that either validates or contradicts this current market estimate. At that point, her inclusion or exclusion from the official nominee pool will largely determine her path to victory.
- ›Rhea Seehorn has received four prior Emmy nominations, establishing her as a recurring contender but not a consistent winner in this category
- ›The 2026 Emmy eligibility period (June 2025-May 2026) determines which projects and performances voters will evaluate; her current work's reception during this window is measurable
- ›Nomination announcements in July 2026 will reveal the actual competitive field; her nomination chances correlate strongly with this publicly announced outcome
- ›Historical voting patterns show drama supporting actress categories typically favor actresses in acclaimed series rather than individual performances, making show strength a quantifiable factor
- ›Market prices for similar categories show substantial gaps (Noah Wyle at 76% vs. Keri Russell at 18%), suggesting significant uncertainty about competitive positioning rather than consensus dismissal
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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