Will Karolina Wydra win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents a 16% chance that Karolina Wydra will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the upcoming ceremony. The probability reflects her position as a secondary contender in a competitive field, where Katherine LaNasa currently leads at 61 cents. Wydra's chances depend on her visibility in award campaigns, the strength of her performance reception from critics and Emmy voters, and how her modest contract price (3 cents) compares to the actual voting patterns when ballots are cast. The Emmy Awards ceremony will settle this market once the winner is announced, making the actual voting outcome the decisive factor that will resolve all uncertainty about the competing candidates.

• ›Wydra's current contract price of 3 cents implies approximately 3% direct probability, but aggregated data shows 16%, indicating significant discrepancy between individual contract pricing and combined assessment
• ›Katherine LaNasa holds 61 cents across the field, suggesting she is the frontrunner by substantial margin, which reduces probability space available for other candidates
• ›Emmy voting is restricted to the Television Academy's membership in relevant categories, making voter sentiment and campaign visibility concrete determinants of outcome
• ›The other named candidates (Emilia Jones at 5 cents, Julianne Nicholson at 5 cents) provide reference points for relative competitive positioning within the supporting actress category
• ›Actual Emmy Award results will be determined at the scheduled Emmy ceremony, representing the single binary event that resolves all uncertainty in this market

What moved the line

• Aug 23Sepideh Moafi↑9pp6→15¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 24Katherine LaNasa↓7pp68→61¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds