England vs. Ghana
Leader sits at 70% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
England
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Draw (England vs. Ghana)
Spread
49pp
contested
24h volume
$24
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
England vs. Ghana
Analysis
This 71% probability indicates that market participants assess England as the most likely winner in an England vs. Ghana matchup. The high confidence reflects England's historical ranking advantage and recent form, though the substantial 21% probability for the runner-up suggests meaningful uncertainty remains. Movement in this probability would likely track England's upcoming fixtures and team news—injuries to key players or unexpected results in warm-up matches could shift sentiment. Ghana's defensive record and England's conversion efficiency in recent competitions represent the primary variables affecting the outcome. The resolution depends on the actual match result, which would occur on the scheduled fixture date between these teams.
- ›England's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Ghana's
- ›Availability and fitness status of key England players in the weeks leading to the match
- ›Ghana's defensive performance metrics and goal-scoring efficiency in recent official competitions
- ›Venue location and any home-field advantage factors (if applicable to the fixture)
- ›Head-to-head historical results and tactical matchups between the two teams
What moved the line
- May 7Draw (England vs. Ghana)↓5pp24→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Ghana↓3pp17→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.