EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated
Leader sits at 35% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
West Ham
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Tottenham
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
May 27, 2026
18 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that at least one of three specific EPL clubs will be relegated at the end of the 2025-26 season. West Ham (35¢) and Tottenham (32¢) are priced highest among the tracked contracts, suggesting these clubs face the most perceived relegation risk. The probability is primarily driven by current league positions, points differentials from safety, and remaining fixture difficulty. As the season progresses through May and beyond, team performances in upcoming matches will directly influence these odds—wins improve survival chances while losses increase relegation risk. The resolution of this market will occur in late May 2026 when the final Premier League standings are determined and the three lowest-placed clubs are officially relegated.
- ›West Ham and Tottenham are individually priced between 32-35¢, indicating specific market concern about their survival prospects relative to other clubs
- ›Nottingham Forest trades at only 13¢ despite being tracked, suggesting the market assigns it substantially lower relegation risk than the top two contracts
- ›Current contract volume and pricing reflect betting activity through early May 2026, meaning this represents recent market sentiment rather than season-long consensus
- ›The aggregated 31% probability represents odds for at least one named club being relegated, not a probability distributed equally across all three
- ›Future repricing will depend on these clubs' actual match results, injury developments, and managerial decisions over the remaining fixtures before league conclusion
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.