Will Serbia be Top 10
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$66K
20 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
6 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Denmark be Top
Cluster 2
Will Greece be Top
Cluster 3
Will France be Top
Cluster 4
Will Finland be Top
Cluster 5
Will Australia be Top
Cluster 6
Will Israel be Top 5
Will Israel be Top 5?: Israel
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP5-ISR
Cluster 7
Will Romania be Top 10
Will Romania be Top 10?: Romania
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-ROM
Cluster 8
Will Italy be Top 10
Will Italy be Top 10?: Italy
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-ITA
Cluster 9
Will Ukraine be Top 5
Will Ukraine be Top 5?: Ukraine
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP5-UKR
Cluster 10
Will Cyprus be Top 10
Will Cyprus be Top 10?: Cyprus
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-CYP
Cluster 11
Will Croatia be Top 5
Will Croatia be Top 5?: Croatia
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP5-CRO
Cluster 12
Will Albania be Top 10
Will Albania be Top 10?: Albania
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-ALB
Cluster 13
Will Bulgaria be Top 10
Will Bulgaria be Top 10?: Bulgaria
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-BUL
Cluster 14
Will Sweden be Top 5
Will Sweden be Top 5?: Sweden
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP5-SWE
Cluster 15
Will Serbia be Top 10
Will Serbia be Top 10?: Serbia
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-SER
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Serbia finishes in the top 10 of a competitive ranking, currently estimated at 26% based on market pricing. Serbia's positioning reflects a moderately competitive outlook, sitting below regional neighbors like Romania (19% for top 3) and well below stronger regional performers like Israel (46% for top 5). The probability is shaped primarily by Serbia's historical performance in similar competitions and regional competitive dynamics. Key drivers pushing the probability higher include Serbia's established infrastructure and track record, while factors pushing it lower involve competition from stronger neighboring countries and overall field strength. The resolution of this probability will depend on how final rankings unfold relative to current market expectations and actual competitive performance metrics when results are tallied.
- ›Serbia's historical ranking performance in previous comparable competitions or benchmarks
- ›Relative strength of competing countries, particularly from the same region (Romania, Israel, Ukraine)
- ›Current market pricing for other Balkan or regional competitors (Romania at 19%, Ukraine at 15%) suggests tiered expectations
- ›Volume and conviction in Kalshi contracts suggests moderate but not overwhelming confidence in the 26% level
- ›Competitive field composition and whether top positions are dominated by a few strong countries or distributed more broadly
What moved the line
- May 9Romania↑30pp37→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 10Australia↑29pp43→72¢ · Kalshi
- May 9Denmark↑26pp32→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 9Finland↑26pp47→73¢ · Kalshi
- May 9France↑15pp22→37¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FClast 56% · 0d
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFClast 45% · 1d
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Marketslast 76% · 1d
- Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara - More Marketslast 76% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.