SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC

Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

42%

Matsumoto Yamaga FC

runner-up 28¢leader 42¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

28¢

Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs

Spread

14pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayMatsumoto Yamaga FC: 48% (3 days, 3 points)Matsumoto Yamaga FC: 48% on 2026-05-08Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC): 37% (3 days, 3 points)Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC): 37% on 2026-05-08Fujieda MYFC: 37% (3 days, 3 points)Fujieda MYFC: 37% on 2026-05-08
Matsumoto Yamaga FC48¢Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC)37¢Fujieda MYFC37¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Recently closed in trump

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.