Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets
Leader sits at 74% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)
0x928a98…fdf4
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x46137e…7d14
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xda9996…e76b
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x600588…4364
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x96a11d…8454
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe8b285…15d9
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: Fujieda MYFC (-2.5)
0x367b6b…76cc
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)
0xb09689…2141
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets: Fujieda MYFC (-1.5)
0xe5e5fd…d637
Analysis
This 55% probability reflects market expectations that both Matsumoto Yamaga FC and Fujieda MYFC will score in their upcoming match. The prediction is based on limited trading activity ($0 volume in the past 24 hours across five related contracts), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially wide confidence intervals. The market prices suggest traders view a both-teams-to-score outcome as moderately more likely than either team winning by specific margins (priced at 29-33%). Factors influencing this estimate include recent offensive and defensive form, injury status of key players, and home/away advantage. The match result will be determined once the game concludes, resolving all related outcome contracts simultaneously. Current pricing reflects J2 League regular-season match dynamics, where scoring patterns and team capabilities are the primary drivers of probability.
- ›Both teams' recent goal-scoring frequency and defensive vulnerability in their last 5-10 matches
- ›Current season standings, injury reports, and whether either team is dealing with key absences
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs
- ›Home field advantage and crowd factors for the scheduled venue
- ›Whether the match is early/mid-season (higher variance) or near season-end (more settled form)
What moved the line
- May 7O/U 4.5↓8pp26→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Fujieda MYFC (-1.5)↑3pp33→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Fujieda MYFC (-2.5)↑3pp27→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.