SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets

Leader sits at 74% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

74%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 55¢leader 74¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

55¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 66% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 66% on 2026-05-08Both Teams to Score: 52% (3 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 52% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 53% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 53% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.566¢Both Teams to Score52¢O/U 2.553¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 55% probability reflects market expectations that both Matsumoto Yamaga FC and Fujieda MYFC will score in their upcoming match. The prediction is based on limited trading activity ($0 volume in the past 24 hours across five related contracts), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially wide confidence intervals. The market prices suggest traders view a both-teams-to-score outcome as moderately more likely than either team winning by specific margins (priced at 29-33%). Factors influencing this estimate include recent offensive and defensive form, injury status of key players, and home/away advantage. The match result will be determined once the game concludes, resolving all related outcome contracts simultaneously. Current pricing reflects J2 League regular-season match dynamics, where scoring patterns and team capabilities are the primary drivers of probability.

  • Both teams' recent goal-scoring frequency and defensive vulnerability in their last 5-10 matches
  • Current season standings, injury reports, and whether either team is dealing with key absences
  • Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs
  • Home field advantage and crowd factors for the scheduled venue
  • Whether the match is early/mid-season (higher variance) or near season-end (more settled form)

What moved the line

  • May 7O/U 4.58pp2618¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Fujieda MYFC (-1.5)3pp3336¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Fujieda MYFC (-2.5)3pp2730¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in trump

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.