FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake
Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Dallas
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Real Salt Lake
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$116
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake
Analysis
The 31% probability reflects market expectations that Real Salt Lake will win this matchup. This implies roughly a 2-to-1 odds in favor of FC Dallas or a draw combined against a Real Salt Lake victory. The current pricing likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. The market would shift upward for Real Salt Lake if FC Dallas suffers key injuries or enters a losing streak, and downward if Real Salt Lake faces roster disruptions or poor recent results. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, which resolves all uncertainty around this particular fixture.
- ›Recent win-loss records for both clubs in the current MLS season, as losing streaks or momentum typically correlate with market repricing
- ›Availability of star players or confirmed injury reports for either team in the days before the match
- ›Historical head-to-head performance between FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake over the past 1-2 seasons
- ›Home-field advantage status and typical performance differential for the hosting team
- ›Market trading volume and contract settlement history, as low volume ($0 24h) may indicate uncertainty or limited liquidity in pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.