SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake - More Markets

Leader sits at 83% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

83%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 64¢leader 83¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

64¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$51

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 83% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 83% on 2026-05-08Both Teams to Score: 64% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 64% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 61% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 61% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.583¢Both Teams to Score64¢O/U 2.561¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 67% probability indicates that traders believe both FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake are more likely than not to each score at least one goal in their upcoming match. The probability reflects expectations about offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities for both teams. Factors influencing this level include recent team form, injury status of key players, and historical scoring patterns in head-to-head matchups. The match outcome will be determined when the final whistle sounds, resolving whether both teams found the back of the net. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads.

  • Recent offensive output: FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake's combined goals scored in their last 5 matches compared to defensive concessions
  • Injury reports: Availability of primary strikers or key defensive players for either team entering the fixture
  • Head-to-head history: Historical frequency of both-teams-to-score outcomes in previous matchups between these opponents
  • Home/away performance split: How each team performs defensively when playing away versus at home
  • Market liquidity: Zero 24-hour volume across contracts suggests low confidence in pricing accuracy and potential repricing upon match day

What moved the line

  • May 7Real Salt Lake (-2.5)6pp126¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.