FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK
Leader sits at 74% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FK Bodø/Glimt
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Mold
Spread
59pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$327
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK
Analysis
This represents the estimated probability that FK Bodø/Glimt defeats Molde FK in an upcoming Norwegian football match. The 90% probability reflects strong market confidence in Bodø/Glimt's win, likely driven by relative team form, head-to-head record, or current league standing. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played—the outcome depends on in-game performance, injuries, tactical execution, and match circumstances. Spread contracts suggest confidence extends to victory margins: Bodø/Glimt winning by 1.5+ is priced at 50¢, while 2.5+ is only 29¢, indicating markets expect a narrow or moderate win rather than a dominant one. Low liquidity in some contracts and the gap between the leading probability (90%) and secondary contracts suggests potential disagreement on the precise margin of victory despite consensus on the winner.
- ›FK Bodø/Glimt's -1.5 spread trades at 50¢ but -2.5 at only 29¢, indicating markets expect a narrow or single-goal victory rather than a blowout
- ›The over/under contracts (2.5 at 74¢, 3.5 at 53¢) suggest relatively low expected goal totals, constraining how dominant any victory could be
- ›Molde FK's -2.5 contract prices at only 6¢, revealing near-zero perceived probability of a 2.5+ goal defeat despite being the runner-up outcome at 74%
- ›Low trading volume on higher-margin and Molde contracts suggests limited disagreement but also minimal recent price discovery or new information flow
- ›The 90% leader price substantially exceeds typical Polymarket average prices (42%), creating a gap that could reflect either genuine confidence or thin liquidity concentrating market opinion
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.