FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets
Leader sits at 91% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$646
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5)
0x5283a2…dc97
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)
0x879d11…150c
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbba59e…6533
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x935aef…c561
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x27b4e7…a7ed
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9d9b18…ae7c
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-2.5)
0x89b8dd…0d69
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x85b3e4…0fa1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-1.5)
0x8e7ca6…3a88
Analysis
The 90% probability indicates markets are pricing FK Bodø/Glimt as a strong favorite in this matchup, reflecting the team's recent form and home advantage in Norwegian football. This assessment is driven by Bodø/Glimt's consistent performance in the Eliteserien and the relative strength differential between the two clubs. The primary catalyst is the actual match result, which will definitively resolve whether Bodø/Glimt wins or the market mispriced the contest. Contract fragmentation across multiple spread levels (-1.5, -2.5) and modest trading volume ($110-$327 across top contracts) suggests limited liquidity, meaning the 90% figure reflects concentrated positioning rather than deep consensus pricing.
- ›FK Bodø/Glimt's recent league position, points total, and win rate relative to Molde FK in the current Eliteserien season
- ›Home-field advantage at Aspmyra Stadium and recent head-to-head record between these clubs
- ›Injury reports or roster availability for key players on either side affecting match quality
- ›Molde FK's form trajectory and whether the team is experiencing an upswing that could narrow the odds
- ›Contract pricing fragmentation across spread levels (-1.5 vs -2.5) indicating disagreement among traders on the margin of victory
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 1.5↑6pp84→90¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Molde FK (-1.5)↓4pp10→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Molde FK (-1.5)↓3pp13→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.