Who will the FTC go after next
Leader sits at 10% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tesla
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Microsoft
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will the FTC go after next
Who will the FTC go after next?: Amazon
KXFTCNEXT-27-AMZN
Who will the FTC go after next?: Meta
KXFTCNEXT-27-META
Who will the FTC go after next?: Microsoft
KXFTCNEXT-27-MFST
Who will the FTC go after next?: Tesla
KXFTCNEXT-27-TSLA
Who will the FTC go after next?: Alphabet
KXFTCNEXT-27-GOOG
Analysis
This reflects the current market estimate that Tesla will be the next company targeted by the FTC in their enforcement actions, priced at an 11% probability among the offered outcomes. Tesla has faced ongoing FTC scrutiny regarding consumer protection claims, particularly around Autopilot marketing and capabilities. The probability level suggests traders view this as a meaningful but not dominant scenario among competing alternatives. Factors that would shift this estimate include new evidence of deceptive practices, FTC staff recommendations for enforcement, or public signals from FTC leadership about priorities. The main catalyst would be official FTC action announcements or high-profile public investigations that narrow the field of potential targets, which typically occur on irregular schedules tied to staff investigations and commissioners' votes.
- ›Tesla's current FTC investigations center on Autopilot marketing claims and could advance to formal enforcement action based on staff findings
- ›The 11% price implies roughly 9-to-1 odds against Tesla being next, suggesting significant probability mass on competing targets
- ›FTC enforcement actions depend on internal investigation timelines and commission votes, not predetermined public calendars
- ›Recent FTC leadership statements about technology company enforcement priorities would indicate whether automotive companies are prioritized versus other sectors
- ›Each of the five offered outcomes in this market structure carries different baseline probabilities based on existing regulatory attention and investigation status
What moved the line
- May 2Tesla↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tesla↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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