Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Germany
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Draw (Germany vs. Côte d'Ivo
Spread
44pp
contested
24h volume
$15
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 20, 2026
42 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Germany will defeat Côte d'Ivoire in an upcoming match. The 35% aggregate probability indicates moderate confidence in a Germany victory, though significant disagreement exists between venues: Polymarket prices Germany at 70 cents (roughly 70% win probability) while Kalshi's limited activity suggests around 11%. Germany enters as the stronger team by historical rankings and recent form, which supports higher win odds. Côte d'Ivoire's chances are constrained by competitive disparity, though upsets occur in football. The wide cross-venue gap of 25 percentage points suggests either different trader bases assessing available information differently, or insufficient liquidity on one venue to establish a stable consensus price. Match context, team lineups, and recent performance data closer to game day would likely narrow disagreement and clarify the true probability.
- ›Germany's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Côte d'Ivoire's comparative standing
- ›Current squad availability and injury status for both teams at time of match
- ›The specific competition format and stakes (tournament stage, group play, or friendly)
- ›Volume imbalance between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests liquidity on Kalshi may be too low to establish reliable pricing
- ›Match conditions and venue factors that could neutralize Germany's typical advantages
What moved the line
- May 6Côte d'Ivoire↑5pp13→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire)↓5pp27→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Germany↓4pp69→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Germany↑3pp68→71¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.