Will the gold close price be above $4146.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether gold will close above $4,146.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The 83% probability reflects strong market conviction that gold will remain above this threshold, suggesting traders expect gold to maintain or gain value over the coming weeks. The current gold price level relative to this strike price and broader macroeconomic conditions—including inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and currency movements—will determine whether this level holds. The resolution date of April 30, 2026 represents the key moment when uncertainty ends, though major economic data releases or Fed announcements in the weeks leading up to that date could significantly shift the probability if they materially change inflation or interest rate expectations.

• ›Gold is trading substantially above the $4,146.99 strike price, requiring a significant decline of roughly 10-15% or more to fail this contract
• ›Related contracts show measurable probability mass for higher strike prices ($4,373.99, $4,580, $4,610, $5,013.99), indicating market view that gold may trend upward or sideways rather than downward
• ›Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation data releases between now and late April 2026 will be primary drivers—higher rates typically pressure gold, while inflation concerns support it
• ›The May 29 contracts trading above this April 30 strike suggest traders see some risk of decline by end-April but recovery potential by late May, creating uncertainty bands
• ›Current trading volume concentration and the leader contract's 2-point spread above the runner-up indicate consensus but not unanimous certainty among active traders

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds