Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
12%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$215
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by...?: June 30
0x4e06c0…4910
Analysis
This market estimates a 9% probability that Colombian President Gustavo Petro will face criminal charges in the United States by a specified date. The relatively low probability suggests markets assess such charges as unlikely in the near term, reflecting the absence of formal investigations or indictments to date. Movement in this probability would likely depend on reported evidence of crimes under US jurisdiction—such as sanctions violations, money laundering, or narcotics trafficking—combined with US prosecutorial and diplomatic decisions. Given Petro's status as a sitting head of state, charging decisions would involve both legal determinations and geopolitical considerations, particularly regarding US-Colombia relations. Key catalysts would include US law enforcement announcements, Congressional pressure, or disclosed investigations from US agencies.
- ›No public US indictment or formal criminal investigation against Petro has been announced as of the resolution date
- ›Sitting heads of state rarely face US criminal prosecution while in office due to diplomatic immunity considerations
- ›Any charge would require evidence of specific crimes under US jurisdiction rather than general policy disagreements
- ›US-Colombia relations, particularly regarding drug trafficking cooperation and extradition policy, influence prosecutorial likelihood
- ›Historical precedent shows US charges against foreign leaders typically require significant political will and extraordinary circumstances
What moved the line
- May 6June 30↑6pp8→14¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.