Will the high temp in Austin be 70-71° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 39% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
89° to 90°
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
87° to 88°
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will the high temp in austin
Will the **high temp in Austin** be 89-90° on May 9, 2026?: 89° to 90°
KXHIGHAUS-26MAY09-B89.5
Will the **high temp in Austin** be 87-88° on May 9, 2026?: 87° to 88°
KXHIGHAUS-26MAY09-B87.5
Will the **high temp in Austin** be 85-86° on May 9, 2026?: 85° to 86°
KXHIGHAUS-26MAY09-B85.5
Will the **high temp in Austin** be >90° on May 9, 2026?: 91° or above
KXHIGHAUS-26MAY09-T90
Will the **high temp in Austin** be 83-84° on May 9, 2026?: 83° to 84°
KXHIGHAUS-26MAY09-B83.5
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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