How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
Leader sits at 25% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
3
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
2
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
217 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 5
0x0654d6…20fa
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 2
0x818e1a…08ff
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 4
0x799526…b535
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 1
0x42a027…69d1
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 6
0x429f31…8215
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 7+
0x384cab…2c16
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 0
0x127ed0…9262
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 3
0x093d6a…78c8
What moved the line
- May 264↓3pp17→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 242↑3pp21→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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