Exactly 3 people
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
244 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Exactly 1 people: Exactly 1
Exactly 1 people: Exactly 1
KXHOWMANYSPEAKERHOUSE-27JAN-SPE-1
Cluster 2
Exactly 2 people: Exactly 2
Exactly 2 people: Exactly 2
KXHOWMANYSPEAKERHOUSE-27JAN-SPE-2
Cluster 3
Exactly 3 people: Exactly 3
Exactly 3 people: Exactly 3
KXHOWMANYSPEAKERHOUSE-27JAN-SPE-3
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Donald Trump will pardon exactly three individuals before June 1, 2026. The current 32% probability sits between the market's expectation of zero pardons (43%) and exactly one pardon (65%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the pace and scope of executive clemency actions. The assessment depends on Trump's pardoning velocity during his term, which has fluctuated based on political priorities, legal considerations, and available candidates. Resolution will occur automatically on June 1, 2026, when the market will determine the final count of issued pardons. The relatively low trading volume and wide price spreads across outcomes indicate limited market conviction and sparse data flow guiding current valuations.
- ›Trump's historical pardoning rate: His first term averaged roughly 5-6 pardons per month in final weeks; current pace through early 2026 establishes the baseline expectation
- ›Trading volume concentration: 93% of volume appears in the 'Exactly 1' contract (65¢), while 'Exactly 3' trades at 3¢ with zero volume, suggesting market sees three pardons as unlikely relative to lower counts
- ›Time horizon: With 29 days remaining until resolution, the window for policy changes is narrow and observable through news of announced pardons
- ›Spread between adjacent outcomes: The gap between 'Exactly 2' (28¢) and 'Exactly 3' (3¢) reflects sharp declining probability at higher pardon counts
- ›Political calendar: No major scheduled events between now and June 1 are known to trigger coordinated clemency actions
What moved the line
- May 2Exactly 1↓3pp67→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.