Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 39% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$5M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
$10M
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$340
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $30M
0x274067…69c0
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x7699a9…ff08
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x78890e…2cfe
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $40M
0x0800ee…207c
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0x1f35e5…9d36
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $5M
0x0d3af4…9fe2
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $10M
0x599d61…e183
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Hurupay will have a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $20 million one day after its token launch. At 35% probability, the market estimates this outcome as unlikely but plausible. The probability reflects uncertainty about Hurupay's initial market reception, token allocation structure, and comparable valuations for similar projects at launch. Factors that could raise this probability include strong pre-launch demand signals, strategic partnerships, or a large seed round that establishes baseline valuation. Conversely, weak pre-launch interest or market-wide crypto conditions would pressure it lower. The resolution depends on observable FDV data immediately following launch—a specific date that will definitively settle the contract based on circulating supply, token price, and total diluted supply figures.
- ›Initial token price at launch versus pre-launch valuation expectations and seed round terms
- ›Circulating supply percentage and full dilution schedule relative to total token allocation
- ›Pre-launch trading volume and interest levels on derivative or prediction markets
- ›Market conditions for similar token launches in the 30 days preceding Hurupay's launch
- ›Comparison of $20M FDV threshold to historical launch valuations for comparable blockchain projects
What moved the line
- May 7$10M↓18pp39→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↓12pp24→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$100M↓9pp33→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$5M↓7pp43→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$20M↓7pp28→21¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.