SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 7 outcomes7 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $52.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

Leader sits at 78% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

78%

Above $45.00

runner-up 45¢leader 78¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

Above $47.50

Spread

33pp

contested

24h volume

$251

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove $45.00: 53% (6 days, 4 points)Above $45.00: 53% on 2026-05-08Above $47.50: 35% (6 days, 5 points)Above $47.50: 35% on 2026-05-08Above $50.00: 18% (6 days, 6 points)Above $50.00: 18% on 2026-05-08
Above $45.0053¢Above $47.5035¢Above $50.0018¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract asks whether HYPE (a cryptocurrency or token) will trade at or above $52.50 by April 30, 2026. The current 26% probability suggests markets view this price level as unlikely but not implausible. With the resolution date approximately four weeks away, the main drivers are HYPE's current price relative to the target, recent volatility patterns, and correlation with broader crypto market movement. Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts in the Kalshi ecosystem show mixed sentiment—ETH bullish at 55%, BTC bearish at 21% for higher levels—indicating uncertainty across digital assets. The outcome depends on whether HYPE experiences sustained upside momentum or consolidates below the threshold. Market makers are pricing roughly 3-to-1 odds against reaching this target, reflecting either current price positioning well below $52.50 or expectations of limited upside catalysts in the four-week window.

  • HYPE's current trading price relative to $52.50 and the percentage gain required to reach it
  • Implied volatility and historical price range for HYPE over similar four-week periods
  • Correlation of HYPE price movement with Bitcoin and Ethereum, given broader crypto market conditions
  • Volume and liquidity on primary exchanges where HYPE trades, affecting price discovery and sustainability
  • Any scheduled token unlocks, exchange listings, or protocol events between now and April 30, 2026

What moved the line

  • May 6Above $45.0022pp4971¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Above $45.0015pp6853¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Above $52.509pp2213¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Above $60.009pp123¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Above $47.508pp4335¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.