Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $22.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader sits at 66% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $40.00
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Below $37.50
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $40.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $40.00
KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26MAY31-4000
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $22.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $22.50
KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26MAY31-2250
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $25.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $25.00
KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26MAY31-2500
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $27.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $27.50
KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26MAY31-2750
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $32.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $32.50
KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26MAY31-3250
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $35.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $35.00
KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26MAY31-3500
Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $37.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $37.50
KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26MAY31-3750
Analysis
This market tracks whether HYPE's price will drop below $22.50 by April 30, 2026—a timeframe that is now in the past as of May 3, 2026. The 29% probability reflects traders' assessment of downside risk for this asset during that period. Price momentum, volatility, and overall market conditions typically drive such predictions. The current odds suggest traders viewed a sub-$22.50 close as unlikely but plausible. Since the resolution date has already passed, this contract should have settled based on the actual trimmed mean price recorded at that time. The main factors affecting such probability estimates include trading volume concentration, historical price range, and broader market sentiment toward digital assets during the specified window.
- ›HYPE's historical trading range and volatility relative to the $22.50 threshold
- ›Overall crypto market conditions and Bitcoin correlation patterns during the April 2026 window
- ›Liquidity and order book depth at price levels near $22.50
- ›Trading volume and price discovery mechanisms on exchanges reporting to the trimmed mean calculation
- ›Any announced updates, partnerships, or regulatory developments affecting HYPE specifically during March-April 2026
What moved the line
- May 2Below $40.00↑32pp53→85¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Below $35.00↓27pp50→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Below $32.50↓24pp32→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Below $40.00↓21pp88→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Below $40.00↓17pp74→57¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.