Will Sweden win the IIHF World Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$268
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Finland win the IIHF World Championship
Will Finland win the IIHF World Championship?: Finland
KXIIHF-26-FIN
Cluster 2
Will Czechia win the IIHF World Championship
Will Czechia win the IIHF World Championship?: Czechia
KXIIHF-26-CZE
Cluster 3
Will Canada win the IIHF World Championship
Will Canada win the IIHF World Championship?: Canada
KXIIHF-26-CAN
Cluster 4
Will Sweden win the IIHF World Championship
Will Sweden win the IIHF World Championship?: Sweden
KXIIHF-26-SWE
Cluster 5
Will Switzerland win the IIHF World Championship
Will Switzerland win the IIHF World Championship?: Switzerland
KXIIHF-26-SUI
Analysis
Sweden is priced at a 13% chance to win the 2026 IIHF World Championship, meaning markets assess roughly a one-in-eight probability of a Swedish victory. This reflects Sweden's status as a traditional hockey power, though not among the top favorites—Canada leads at 44%, with the USA, Finland, and Switzerland also in contention. The probability depends primarily on Sweden's roster composition, recent performance trends heading into the tournament, and how their players perform in early-round matches. The championship itself, scheduled for spring 2026, will determine the outcome; Sweden's performance in qualifying rounds and group play will be the immediate catalyst for repricing this contract. Current low trading volume suggests limited recent activity among traders reassessing Swedish chances.
- ›Sweden's historical Olympic and World Championship medal performance and current roster strength compared to Canada, USA, and other top programs
- ›Recent head-to-head results between Sweden and leading contenders in the 12-24 months preceding the tournament
- ›Injury status and availability of key Swedish players during the tournament window
- ›Sweden's placement and group composition in the tournament draw and strength of schedule in early rounds
- ›The gap between Canada (44¢) and Sweden (13¢) suggests markets view Sweden as a clear contender but not among the top three favorites
What moved the line
- May 17Canada↑39pp12→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Canada↓18pp55→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Finland↑9pp6→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Canada↑8pp37→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Switzerland↑7pp14→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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