Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets
Leader sits at 71% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$20K
liquid
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8ad741…e675
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x54b0e1…1ec9
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x984c9a…90c8
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x05e192…595f
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
0x7a9c39…26fb
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc81cbc…7940
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: Independiente Medellín (-1.5)
0x99ff99…5d84
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-2.5)
0x75e2aa…af0f
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: Independiente Medellín (-2.5)
0x33f5ff…a322
Analysis
This 71% probability indicates that the market leader expects Independiente Medellín to win their match against CR Flamengo, though with meaningful uncertainty remaining. The probability reflects Flamengo's status as a established Brazilian club against a Colombian side, balanced against Medellín's home-field advantage and current form. The contract pricing diverges notably from the 49% runner-up position, suggesting significant disagreement about the likely outcome. Key factors driving this assessment include relative team strength in continental competition, recent performance metrics, and the specific match conditions. Resolution will occur when the match is played—the scheduled fixture date will determine whether Medellín secures victory or the outcome follows an alternative result.
- ›Flamengo's historical performance in Copa Libertadores and recent league standings versus Medellín's domestic form and home record
- ›Head-to-head historical results and goal differential in previous meetings between these clubs
- ›Injury status and squad availability for both teams leading up to match day
- ›Current league position and momentum of each club in their respective domestic competitions
- ›Venue factors and weather conditions that may favor one team's playing style
What moved the line
- May 8Independiente Medellín (-2.5)↑30pp4→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 8O/U 4.5↑26pp10→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 8CR Flamengo (-1.5)↑23pp27→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 8CR Flamengo (-2.5)↑22pp11→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Independiente Medellín (-1.5)↑20pp5→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.