Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
Leader sits at 26% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CR Flamengo (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
CR Flamengo (-2.5)
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$879
thin orderbook
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's expectation that CR Flamengo will win by fewer than 1.5 goals against Independiente Medellín. At 19%, this indicates relatively low confidence in a narrow Flamengo victory, suggesting traders expect either a Medellín win, a draw, or a larger Flamengo margin. The low probability likely reflects Medellín's home-field advantage and recent form, while Flamengo's inconsistency away from home weighs against the spread. The outcome will be determined by the match itself on the scheduled date, where final team lineups, weather conditions, and tactical adjustments will resolve this market. Recent performance trends, head-to-head records, and injury status closer to kickoff typically shift these probabilities materially.
- ›Independiente Medellín plays at altitude in Medellín, a significant advantage historically; away teams often struggle with both the elevation and crowd support
- ›CR Flamengo's recent away-match win-rate and goal-differential compared to their home performance; poor road records typically suppress spread probabilities
- ›Relative squad quality and current form entering the match; injuries to key attacking or defensive players can shift expected margins by 0.5–1.5 goals
- ›Historical head-to-head goal margins in competitive matches between these teams; if typical outcomes favor larger winning margins, a -1.5 spread will remain underpriced
- ›Market volume and participation; with zero 24-hour volume on both contracts, the 19% price may reflect thin liquidity rather than confident consensus
What moved the line
- May 8CR Flamengo (-1.5)↑23pp27→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 8CR Flamengo (-2.5)↑22pp11→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (26% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.