Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)
Leader sits at 60% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x96cfcd…1513
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
0x559461…3557
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd128a4…33d7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)
0xd92e3c…28a1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x13712f…25b6
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
0x71f745…44e7
Analysis
SC Corinthians Paulista is priced to win by more than 2.5 goals with 65% probability in this fixture. The market implies Corinthians' advantage, though betting activity remains sparse across all related contracts with zero 24-hour volume. The current assessment reflects Corinthians' perceived strength relative to Santa Fe, but the low liquidity suggests limited confidence or market interest in the matchup. Resolution depends on the actual match outcome, expected to occur within the standard South American club fixture calendar. Key variables affecting the probability include each team's recent form, home-field status, squad availability, and head-to-head history.
- ›SC Corinthians Paulista priced at 65% to cover -2.5 spread indicates market expects at least 3-goal margin in their favor
- ›Draw contract trading at 30¢ and Both Teams to Score at 50¢ suggest alternative scenarios carry meaningful probability weight
- ›Zero 24-hour volume across all nine contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing
- ›Santa Fe (-2.5) contract at 11¢ reflects very low probability of a 3+ goal Santa Fe victory
- ›The spread between Corinthians' -2.5 line (65%) and the close runner-up outcome (50%) shows moderate consensus rather than near-certain expectation
What moved the line
- May 7O/U 2.5↓21pp35→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 1.5↓17pp62→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 6SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)↓16pp20→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Both Teams to Score↓13pp43→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓12pp18→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.