IPL Playoff Qualifiers
Leader sits at 93% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Punjab Kings
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$17K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
IPL Playoff Qualifiers
IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Sunrisers Hyderabad
KXIPLPLAYOFF-26-SRH
IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Mumbai Indians
KXIPLPLAYOFF-26-MI
IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Rajasthan Royals
KXIPLPLAYOFF-26-RR
IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Royal Challengers Bengaluru
KXIPLPLAYOFF-26-RCB
IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Punjab Kings
KXIPLPLAYOFF-26-PBKS
IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Gujarat Titans
KXIPLPLAYOFF-26-GT
IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Chennai Super Kings
KXIPLPLAYOFF-26-CSK
Analysis
The market currently prices Punjab Kings at a 94% probability of qualifying for the IPL playoffs, reflecting their competitive position with roughly three weeks remaining in the 2026 IPL season. This high probability indicates the market views Punjab as having a substantial cushion in the standings relative to teams fighting for the final playoff spots. The main drivers are Punjab's current net run rate, their remaining fixture schedule, and the performance of competing teams like Sunrisers Hyderabad (84%) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (88%). The probability will fluctuate based on match results in early May, particularly how Punjab performs against upper-table teams and whether mid-pack teams close the gap in wins. The IPL regular season concludes around May 25–26, at which point the four playoff qualifiers will be mathematically determined, fully resolving this contract.
- ›Punjab Kings' current position in the points table and net run rate relative to the fifth-place team
- ›Strength of Punjab's remaining fixtures against teams above and below them in the standings
- ›Head-to-head records and recent form trends for the five teams competing for the fourth playoff spot
- ›Changes to team composition due to injuries or roster adjustments before the trade/replacement deadline if applicable
- ›Volume concentration on Punjab (94¢, $10K+ daily volume) versus scattered liquidity on alternatives, suggesting consensus but limited arbitrage pressure
What moved the line
- May 2Royal Challengers Bengaluru↑24pp62→86¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Gujarat Titans↑23pp18→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Chennai Super Kings↑23pp2→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Chennai Super Kings↓9pp11→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Royal Challengers Bengaluru↓8pp92→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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