Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$46K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
0x09148e…bb65
Analysis
This 8% probability reflects a very low expectation that Iran will voluntarily cease uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026—just six days from today. Uranium enrichment is central to Iran's nuclear program and has been a key point of contention in international negotiations. The current low probability likely reflects the short timeframe remaining and the absence of recent indications that Iran is moving toward such an agreement. Factors that could shift this probability include sudden breakthrough negotiations, external political pressure, or announced policy reversals by Iranian leadership. The resolution of this question depends primarily on official Iranian government statements or International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification of enrichment cessation by the deadline.
- ›Time constraint: only 6 days remain until the May 31 deadline, leaving minimal window for policy implementation or verification
- ›Current nuclear negotiations status: whether ongoing talks between Iran and international parties show momentum toward enrichment concessions
- ›Iran's stated nuclear policy: recent public positions from Iranian officials regarding enrichment continuation or suspension
- ›IAEA monitoring capacity: ability to verify enrichment stoppage through inspections or technical monitoring by May 31
- ›Historical precedent: Iran's past responses to enrichment-related demands and compliance with nuclear agreements
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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