SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 8, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketclosed 21 h agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

Ismaily SC vs. Modern SC - More Markets

Leader sits at 66% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

66%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 45¢leader 66¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

21pp

contested

24h volume

$53

thin orderbook

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 46% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 46% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 25% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 25% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 27% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 27% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.546¢Both Teams to Score25¢O/U 2.527¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The market is pricing an Ismaily SC victory over Modern SC at 66%, suggesting a clear but not overwhelming favorite in what appears to be a single-match winner-take-all contest. This probability reflects bettors' assessment of relative team strength, form, and match conditions as of May 2026. The elevated favorite odds compared to a 50-50 baseline typically indicate one team has demonstrated superior recent performance, better head-to-head record, or home-field advantage. The resolution will depend on the actual match outcome, which would settle all eight linked contracts simultaneously. Key factors moving this probability would include team injuries, lineup changes, or tactical shifts announced before kickoff, as well as recent performance trends in the lead-up to the fixture. The match itself serves as the single defining catalyst that resolves all uncertainty around this outcome.

  • Current 66% price reflects relative strength assessment; a 45% runner-up price indicates meaningful disagreement exists rather than consensus
  • Pre-match team news—injuries to key players, suspensions, or formation changes—would directly alter win probability for either side
  • Recent head-to-head record and current league standing differential between Ismaily SC and Modern SC determine baseline expectations
  • Home vs. away designation and venue conditions historically influence outcome distribution in Egyptian football fixtures
  • Actual match result at scheduled kickoff is the sole resolution mechanism for all eight bound contracts, making timing and fixture confirmation critical

What moved the line

  • May 6Ismaily SC (-1.5)32pp375¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)30pp377¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6O/U 4.527pp347¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Both Teams to Score20pp4525¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6O/U 3.520pp3919¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 21 h ago.