Ismaily SC vs. Modern SC - More Markets
Leader sits at 66% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$53
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xe6e231…6e53
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x3c0f5f…5d9f
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5)
0x21ed5a…5e0d
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xfa839b…5bad
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)
0x5d63d2…892c
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3e4cd1…c9a0
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x491b92…d453
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Ismaily SC (-1.5)
0xaa1d2c…6cde
Analysis
The market is pricing an Ismaily SC victory over Modern SC at 66%, suggesting a clear but not overwhelming favorite in what appears to be a single-match winner-take-all contest. This probability reflects bettors' assessment of relative team strength, form, and match conditions as of May 2026. The elevated favorite odds compared to a 50-50 baseline typically indicate one team has demonstrated superior recent performance, better head-to-head record, or home-field advantage. The resolution will depend on the actual match outcome, which would settle all eight linked contracts simultaneously. Key factors moving this probability would include team injuries, lineup changes, or tactical shifts announced before kickoff, as well as recent performance trends in the lead-up to the fixture. The match itself serves as the single defining catalyst that resolves all uncertainty around this outcome.
- ›Current 66% price reflects relative strength assessment; a 45% runner-up price indicates meaningful disagreement exists rather than consensus
- ›Pre-match team news—injuries to key players, suspensions, or formation changes—would directly alter win probability for either side
- ›Recent head-to-head record and current league standing differential between Ismaily SC and Modern SC determine baseline expectations
- ›Home vs. away designation and venue conditions historically influence outcome distribution in Egyptian football fixtures
- ›Actual match result at scheduled kickoff is the sole resolution mechanism for all eight bound contracts, making timing and fixture confirmation critical
What moved the line
- May 6Ismaily SC (-1.5)↓32pp37→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)↓30pp37→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓27pp34→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Both Teams to Score↓20pp45→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓20pp39→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 21 h ago.