Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...
Leader sits at 12% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
June 30, 2026
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$412
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by
Analysis
This market estimates a 16% chance that Israel and Indonesia will establish formal diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026—roughly five weeks away. Indonesia, a Muslim-majority nation and G20 member, has historically maintained distance from Israel over Palestinian concerns, making normalization uncommon in this region. The probability reflects skepticism that such a major diplomatic shift would occur in this narrow timeframe. The primary factors are whether high-level negotiations occur in May 2026 and whether either government signals intent to change relations. The most concrete catalyst would be an official announcement or diplomatic visit in the coming weeks; absent such signals, the probability may further decline as the deadline approaches. For comparison, markets price Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization at 20% and Israel-Lebanon at 21% by early 2027, suggesting Indonesia ranks among less likely near-term partners.
- ›Indonesia has not publicly signaled interest in normalizing relations with Israel as of May 2026; any change would require sudden policy reversal
- ›The timeframe (5 weeks remaining) leaves minimal window for negotiation, formal recognition, and implementation of diplomatic protocols
- ›Indonesia's position as a G20 member and OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) leader creates domestic political constraints that would require significant regional or geopolitical shifts to overcome
- ›No scheduled high-level diplomatic meetings or state visits between Israeli and Indonesian officials have been publicly announced for May-June 2026
- ›Historical precedent shows Indonesia has maintained non-recognition policies despite regional normalization trends; reversal would represent exceptional rather than incremental change
What moved the line
- May 3December 31, 2026↓3pp17→14¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.