Israel military action against Damascus by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israel military action against Damascus by
Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30
0xeb4bea…17f4
Analysis
This market estimates an 18% probability that Israel will conduct military operations against Damascus by a specific deadline. The probability reflects current Middle East tensions and Israel's stated security concerns regarding Syrian government capabilities and Iranian presence. Key factors influencing the estimate include the stability of Syria's government, regional diplomatic developments, and broader geopolitical tensions. The market price suggests traders view such action as unlikely but plausible within the timeframe. Resolution depends on whether verifiable military operations occur before the deadline, with factors like ceasefire agreements, diplomatic negotiations, or changes in Syrian government control potentially lowering probability, while escalations in regional conflicts or direct threats to Israeli security could raise it.
- ›Current Syrian government stability and control over Damascus, particularly regarding weapons stockpiles or Iranian military infrastructure
- ›Status of Israel-Syria diplomatic channels and international pressure regarding military action in Syrian territory
- ›Broader regional security incidents and escalation patterns that would alter incentive structures for military intervention
- ›Presence and activity level of Iranian military assets in Syria that Israeli security doctrine identifies as direct threats
- ›Timeline-specific factors: the specific resolution date creates a bounded window where military action must occur to settle the contract
What moved the line
- May 6June 30↑9pp18→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 3June 30↓6pp24→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 8June 30↑6pp26→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (34% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.