Jack Doherty Prison Time?
Leader sits at 78% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No Prison Time
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
5+ Years
Spread
60pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 31, 2026
175 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Jack Doherty Prison Time
Analysis
This market prices the probability that Jack Doherty receives a prison sentence of 5 or more years at 87%, based on aggregated trading across multiple contracts. Doherty, a content creator, faces legal charges that traders believe carry significant risk of substantial incarceration. The high probability reflects trader assessment that evidence or charges support a lengthy sentence, though 13% of contracts still price in shorter sentences or lighter outcomes. Key drivers include the specific charges filed, any plea negotiations, and sentencing guidelines applicable to his case. Resolution depends on final judicial sentencing, which determines whether the 5+ year threshold is met. Trading volume remains minimal, suggesting limited market liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads.
- ›Specific criminal charges filed against Doherty and their statutory sentencing ranges
- ›Status of plea negotiations and any prosecution-defense agreements that might reduce sentencing exposure
- ›Prior sentencing patterns by the assigned judge in comparable cases
- ›Whether charges include mandatory minimum provisions that would push sentences above 5 years
- ›Timing of trial or sentencing hearing, which creates a discrete resolution event
What moved the line
- May 3No Prison Time↑18pp70→88¢ · Polymarket
- May 65+ Years↑12pp9→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 6No Prison Time↓11pp88→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 62-5 Years↓5pp16→11¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.