2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant
Leader sits at 30% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Adrian Torres
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Kalaya
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 16, 2027
384 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 James Beard Award
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef?: Josh Niernberg
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-JOS
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Restaurant presented by Acqua Panna® Natural Spring Water?: Kalaya
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OR-KAL
2026 James Beard Award for Best New Bar?: Loma
KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNB-LOM
2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: Rasheeda Purdie
KXJAMESBEARD-36-EC-RAS
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef?: David Standridge
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-DAV
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bar?: Bow & Arrow Brewing Co.
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OBA-BOW
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bakery?: Cultured
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-CUL
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bar?: Smuggler's Cove
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OBA-SMU
2026 James Beard Award for Best New Bar?: Clemente Bar
KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNB-CLE
2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: Adrian Torres
KXJAMESBEARD-36-EC-ADR
2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant?: Anjin
KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-ANJ
2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant?: Tamba
KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-TAM
2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant?: Emmett
KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-EMM
2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: E.J. Lagasse
KXJAMESBEARD-36-EC-EJ
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bar?: Onyx Coffee Lab
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OBA-ONY
2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: Fátima Juárez
KXJAMESBEARD-36-EC-FAT
2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: Bailey Sullivan
KXJAMESBEARD-36-EC-BAI
Analysis
The 42% probability indicates that a specific restaurant has roughly 2-in-5 odds of winning the 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant based on current market pricing. This probability reflects limited trading activity—only 20 contracts across Kalshi with modest daily volume—suggesting relatively thin liquidity and uncertainty among bettors. The award winner will be determined when the James Beard Foundation announces results, likely in spring 2026. Key factors moving this probability would include media coverage of finalist restaurants, chef reputation and press mentions, any scandal or controversy affecting contenders, and industry insider sentiment as the voting deadline approaches. The relative thinness of trading activity means individual contract shifts can move the headline price meaningfully, so the current level should be interpreted cautiously as a gauge of incomplete market conviction rather than a consensus forecast.
- ›Only 20 contracts traded across all Best New Restaurant outcomes, indicating thin liquidity and limited confidence in price discovery
- ›The leading contract trades at 42¢ while the runner-up sits at 35¢, suggesting modest separation between top contenders rather than clear market consensus
- ›Daily trading volume averages $320 or less per related contract, implying minimal information flow and sporadic buyer/seller participation
- ›The James Beard Award voting and announcement timeline will be the primary event determining resolution, with no intermediate data points to adjust probability
- ›Related contracts across different James Beard categories (Outstanding Bar, Emerging Chef) show prices clustered between 8¢ and 35¢, reflecting uncertainty across multiple restaurant-related awards
What moved the line
- May 28David Standridge↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Clemente Bar↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Loma↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBCDemocratlast 87% · 0d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- TX-33 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 90% · 1d
- Will Trump say "Autism" before Apr 27, 2026last 15% · 3d
- Will Brentford be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Seasonlast 94% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.