JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...
Leader sits at 36% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
May 31
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
32 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by
Recently closed in iran
- Will there be more than 120 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 20, 2026 to Apr 26, 2026last 97% · 2d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Aprillast 3% · 3d
- Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31last 3% · 0d
- EWC 2026last 77% · 2d
- Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...last 95% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (36% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as Deadlines Pass
Markets for a permanent US‑Iran peace deal by May 26 hit 0¢, and later deadlines (June 7, June 15) also fell by 3‑4¢. Meanwhile, internet restoration in Iran soared 42¢ to 67¢, suggesting a possible regime concession or internal change.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Heats Up
Markets are pricing a rapidly increasing probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal, with the July 31 contract jumping 15¢ to 54¢ and the June 30 contract up 13¢ to 42¢. A US blockade lift announcement by June 30 surged 18¢ to 64¢, signaling that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.