Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Myropillia by
Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?: May 31
0x86c08a…f8a0
Analysis
This probability represents the market's estimate that Russian forces will seize control of Myropillia, a settlement in Ukraine, within the next two weeks by May 31, 2026. The 6% level suggests traders view capture as unlikely in this timeframe, likely reflecting the current military positions, pace of Russian advances in the region, and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The main driver of probability shifts would be changes in the rate of Russian territorial gains in eastern Ukraine or significant shifts in military resources. The single biggest catalyst will be the actual military situation on the ground as May 31 approaches, with real-time reports of Russian force movements and Ukrainian counteraction providing the clearest indication of whether capture becomes feasible.
- ›Current distance of Russian forces from Myropillia and the rate of advance in recent weeks
- ›Ukrainian defensive positions and reported troop concentrations around the settlement
- ›Supply line status and availability of Russian assault forces allocated to this specific objective
- ›Historical pace of Russian territorial gains in this region over comparable two-week periods
- ›Any announced Ukrainian reinforcements or strategic withdrawals affecting the contested area
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...last 95% · 3d
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...last 97% · 5d
- Will Putin visit China by May 31last 97% · 7d
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...last 96% · 10d
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026last 95% · 17d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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The 'Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31' contract surged a staggering 43¢ to 93¢, signaling the market expects a decisive Russian victory within days. This has spillover effects on Ukraine peace deal probabilities, which rose 3¢ to 31¢.
Ukraine Re-Enters Uspenivka – Odds Skyrocket 34 Points
The probability of Ukraine re-entering the key frontline town of Uspenivka by May 31 exploded from 5¢ to 39¢, suggesting a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. This is the day's biggest mover across all topics.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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