Jordan vs. Algeria
Leader sits at 60% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Algeria
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Draw (Jordan vs. Algeria)
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Jordan vs. Algeria
Analysis
The 60% probability indicates market participants currently favor Algeria to win in a matchup against Jordan. This assessment reflects aggregate trading on multiple prediction contracts, where Algeria's contract trades significantly higher than alternatives. The probability is shaped by relative team strength assessments, recent performance records, and any available match-specific information. Movement would likely follow confirmed team lineups, injury announcements, or venue details. The resolution will occur when the match concludes and an official result is recorded, eliminating all remaining uncertainty around the outcome.
- ›Algeria's contract price (60¢) substantially exceeds Jordan's implied probability (27% based on runner-up positioning), suggesting market confidence in Algeria as the favored outcome
- ›Trading volume on the Jordan vs. Algeria contract is currently zero over 24 hours, indicating thin liquidity and potential for price movement if significant new information emerges
- ›The Argentina vs. Algeria contracts show active trading ($273 24h volume) with Argentina trading at 71¢, providing indirect signals about comparative strength assessments across different matchups
- ›Match-specific variables—team roster availability, recent form, head-to-head history, and scheduling details—remain the primary drivers of probability shifts
- ›Official match result is the sole resolution mechanism; any delay, postponement, or format change would extend uncertainty and potentially shift market prices
What moved the line
- May 3Jordan↑3pp18→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Jordan↓3pp21→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.