Jordan vs. Argentina
Leader sits at 73% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Argentina
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Draw (Jordan vs. Argentina)
Spread
52pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
50 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Jordan vs. Argentina
Analysis
The market is pricing Argentina as a 76% favorite to win this matchup against Jordan. This probability reflects Argentina's established strength in football—they are the reigning Copa América champions with one of the highest-ranked squads globally—compared to Jordan's lower international ranking and less developed competitive history. The primary factors supporting Argentina's odds are their recent tournament success and consistent performance against lower-ranked opponents. Conversely, any upset would require Jordan to execute a tactical upset or capitalize on Argentina defensive lapses. The fixture result will be determined by the match itself; key variables include team form at the time of play, injury status of key players, and home-field advantage. The probability could shift materially based on team news released closer to kickoff, recent head-to-head records if available, and any unexpected roster changes.
- ›Argentina ranks significantly higher in FIFA world rankings than Jordan, a persistent competitive gap that historically correlates with match outcomes
- ›Argentina won Copa América 2024 and maintains strong recent tournament form, while Jordan's international tournament experience is substantially more limited
- ›The 76% probability reflects a decisive favorite, not a close matchup—roughly 3:1 implied odds rather than a competitive contest
- ›Injury status and squad availability for both teams in the days leading up to the fixture could materially alter expected performance levels
- ›Home-field advantage, if applicable, and recent bilateral head-to-head results would provide concrete evidence supporting or challenging the current pricing
What moved the line
- May 8Jordan↓8pp26→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Jordan↑5pp21→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.