Will Alistair Docherty win the Colonial Life Charity Classic
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
4 contracts
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Blades Brown win the UNC Health Championship
Will Blades Brown win the UNC Health Championship?: Blades Brown
KXKFTOUR-UNHC26-BBRO
Cluster 2
Will Jeremy Gandon win the UNC Health Championship
Will Jeremy Gandon win the UNC Health Championship?: Jeremy Gandon
KXKFTOUR-UNHC26-JGAN
Cluster 3
Will Alistair Docherty win the UNC Health Championship
Will Alistair Docherty win the UNC Health Championship?: Alistair Docherty
KXKFTOUR-UNHC26-ADOC
Cluster 4
Will Ian Holt win the UNC Health Championship
Will Ian Holt win the UNC Health Championship?: Ian Holt
KXKFTOUR-UNHC26-IHOL
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Alistair Docherty has a 13% chance of winning the Colonial Life Charity Classic, a PGA Tour event. The relatively low probability reflects Docherty's current position in the competitive field; the probability would rise with strong recent tournament results or fall if other competitors demonstrate superior form heading into the event. The primary uncertainty resolver is the tournament itself, which will definitively determine the winner and collapse all probabilities to either 0% or 100%. Current trading activity shows modest interest ($29 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market conviction around this specific outcome compared to competing favorites like Ryan Blaum (25%) and Blades Brown (11%).
- ›Docherty's recent PGA Tour performance and world ranking relative to the field competing in this specific event
- ›Comparison of implied probability (13%) to historical win rates for players with similar rankings and recent form
- ›The Colonial's course setup and historical data on which player profiles tend to perform well there
- ›Betting volume and consensus odds from other major sportsbooks outside Kalshi to identify potential mispricings
- ›Docherty's status as healthy and confirmed to be competing in the tournament on the announced dates
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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