Kimi K3 released by…
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
May 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
June 30
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$246
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kimi K3 released by…
Kimi K3 released by…?: June 30
0xd35798…ff5f
Kimi K3 released by…?: May 31
0x049136…adfe
Analysis
This 41% probability reflects market expectation that Kimi K3 will be released by June 30, 2026. The estimate appears driven by recent activity in AI model releases and typical development timelines for major language model updates. The main uncertainty centers on whether Kimi's development schedule compresses into the next two months or extends beyond this window. Claude 5's higher market pricing (28-42¢ for June 30 release) suggests traders view it as more likely to arrive first, creating competitive pressure on release timing. The resolution date of June 30, 2026 is approximately 58 days away, meaning any official announcement or leak about launch dates would significantly shift probabilities. Current trading volume remains modest, with the Kimi K3 contract averaging $116 in daily volume, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for price movement on new information.
- ›Kimi K3 June 30 contract trades at 42¢ while the May 31 deadline trades at 18¢, indicating markets assign roughly 2.3x higher probability to the later date
- ›Claude 5 June 30 contract prices at 28¢, nearly matching Kimi K3's 42¢, suggesting traders view these as competing release windows rather than both occurring
- ›Trading volume on these contracts ($100-$133 daily) is substantially lower than Claude 5 May 31 ($3,669 daily), indicating less market confidence in Kimi timing estimates
- ›No officially announced release date exists for Kimi K3, meaning current probabilities rely on inference from development patterns and competitive timelines
- ›The 58-day window to resolution means the probability is sensitive to any credible announcements, leaks, or public statements about launch schedules
What moved the line
- May 7June 30↓18pp41→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 2June 30↓3pp45→42¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.