La Liga - Top 4 Finish
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 27%, Polymarket at 38% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
15 contracts
Polymarket
38%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$365
20 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 27¢ · Polymarket 38¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (27¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (38¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
17 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Bundesliga - Top 4 Finish
Cluster 2
Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: Leverkusen
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-LEV
Cluster 3
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: Hoffenheim
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-TSG
Cluster 4
Will Stuttgart finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will Stuttgart finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: Stuttgart
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-VFB
Cluster 5
Will Freiburg finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will Freiburg finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: Freiburg
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-SCF
Cluster 6
Will Betis finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season
Will Betis finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season?: Betis
KXLALIGATOP4-26-RBB
Cluster 7
Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: Dortmund
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-BVB
Cluster 8
Will Getafe finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season
Will Getafe finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season?: Getafe
KXLALIGATOP4-26-GET
Cluster 9
Will Alaves finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season
Will Alaves finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season?: Alaves
KXLALIGATOP4-26-ALA
Cluster 10
Will Rayo Vallecano finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season
Will Rayo Vallecano finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season?: Rayo Vallecano
KXLALIGATOP4-26-RVC
Cluster 11
Will Bremen finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will Bremen finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: Bremen
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-SVW
Cluster 12
Will Frankfurt finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will Frankfurt finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: Frankfurt
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-SGE
Cluster 13
LALIGA - Top 4 Finish : Betis
LALIGA - Top 4 Finish : Betis
0xccb49e…a630
Cluster 14
Will Espanyol finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season
Will Espanyol finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season?: Espanyol
KXLALIGATOP4-26-ESP
Cluster 15
Will St. Pauli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season
Will St. Pauli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?: St. Pauli
KXBUNDESLIGATOP4-26-STP
Cluster 16
Will Athletic Bilbao finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season
Will Athletic Bilbao finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season?: Athletic Bilbao
KXLALIGATOP4-26-ATH
Cluster 17
Will Girona finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season
Will Girona finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 La Liga season?: Girona
KXLALIGATOP4-26-GIR
Analysis
This 4% probability reflects Stuttgart's low likelihood of finishing in La Liga's top 4 during the 2025-26 season. Stuttgart is a Bundesliga club, not a La Liga team, which explains the minimal market interest and extremely low valuation. For context, La Liga's top 4 is typically contested by established Spanish clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, and Sevilla. The contract appears to be mislabeled or reflects confusion about league classification. Market resolution depends on clarification of whether Stuttgart's Bundesliga top-4 finish (priced significantly higher at 51%) was mistakenly listed, or if there's a separate Spanish La Liga prediction being tracked.
- ›Stuttgart competes in Germany's Bundesliga, not Spain's La Liga, making a La Liga top-4 finish mechanically impossible
- ›Related Polymarket contract shows Stuttgart at 51% for Bundesliga top-4 finish, suggesting market data may be conflated or mislabeled
- ›Trading volume is extremely low ($221-408 daily on this contract), indicating minimal market liquidity or confidence in the listing
- ›The 2025-26 La Liga season runs through May 2026, with only weeks remaining until competition concludes
- ›Clarification of contract specifications would be required to understand whether this represents actual market expectations or a data classification error
What moved the line
- May 3Stuttgart↓21pp25→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Leverkusen↑15pp5→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Hoffenheim↓11pp24→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Hoffenheim↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Dortmund↓4pp99→95¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.