La Liga - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 9 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
35%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
9 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Sevilla
0x42ac3e…ce3f
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Mallorca
0x888113…1362
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Valencia
0xee0bbd…a6a9
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Alavés
0xb6d673…07ea
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Oviedo
0xbaaafe…df52
LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Espanyol
0xe14008…4f50
Cluster 2
Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Analysis
This represents the probability that specific La Liga clubs will be relegated by the end of the 2025-26 season. The current 29% aggregate probability reflects a significant disagreement between markets: Kalshi prices it at just 4%, while Polymarket averages 30%, suggesting uncertainty about which clubs face genuine relegation risk. La Liga's competitive landscape and each team's current position in the standings would push this probability higher if mid-table clubs enter a sustained slump, or lower if traditional top-flight sides stabilize. The key catalyst is the final weeks of the season (typically ending in May/June), when mathematical certainty about which clubs drop to the second division becomes clear. Interim factors include upcoming fixture difficulty, injury situations among relegation-zone teams, and any significant management changes that could affect performance trajectories.
- ›Current league standings show which clubs occupy the bottom three positions and their point differential from safety
- ›Historical relegation patterns in La Liga indicate whether the current at-risk clubs match typical relegation profiles
- ›The 26-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on fundamental relegation risk assessment
- ›Remaining fixtures and schedule difficulty for bottom-placed teams will materially affect their ability to accumulate points
- ›Recent form trends (wins, losses, draws) for clubs near the relegation zone indicate whether trajectories are improving or deteriorating
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.