LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Leader sits at 51% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Deportivo Alaves
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
17th Place (Relegation Survi
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Celta Vigo
0x6a3120…1f14
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Real Oviedo
0x83a171…5ae8
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Elche
0x638001…48b4
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Levante
0x1c5e71…8e50
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Valencia
0xd4e11e…3a60
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Deportivo Alaves
0x0b53ae…7656
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Espanyol
0xf37459…9a85
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Sevilla
0xd92706…aa45
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Rayo Vallecano
0x6f6fae…8ce7
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Girona
0x2ac777…d578
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Getafe
0x8d9269…c410
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Osasuna
0xed3d4c…9f82
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Mallorca
0x75b69a…052a
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Real Sociedad
0xfaf822…e182
LALIGA: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Athletic Bilbao
0xc05c4b…490a
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Deportivo Alavés will finish 17th in La Liga and avoid automatic relegation, with a narrow edge over Celta Vigo at 49%. The outcome depends primarily on remaining match results and goal differential among the bottom clubs—teams currently in or near the relegation zone will strengthen their position with wins, while defeats increase their relegation risk. The resolution occurs at the end of the 2025–26 La Liga season (typically mid-June 2026), when final standings become official. Until then, each round of matches will move probabilities as the points gap between Alavés and its competitors tightens or widens.
- ›Deportivo Alavés' remaining fixture difficulty and head-to-head records against other bottom-six competitors will directly affect survival odds
- ›Current points total and goal differential between Alavés, Celta Vigo, and other relegation-contending teams as of late May 2026
- ›Match results in the final 3–4 rounds of the season (late May through mid-June 2026) determine which team lands in 17th place vs. 18th/19th (automatic relegation)
- ›Injury status and squad depth of Alavés' key players, which influence consistency in crucial final matches
- ›Historical win rates and defensive records of Alavés vs. competing teams in similar pressure situations
What moved the line
- May 217th Place (Relegation Survivor): Elche↓20pp48→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 617th Place (Relegation Survivor): Getafe↓15pp43→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 317th Place (Relegation Survivor): Elche↓7pp28→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 217th Place (Relegation Survivor): Getafe↓5pp48→43¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.