Who will win the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Karen Bass
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Spencer Pratt
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
389 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election
Who will win the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?: Spencer Pratt
KXLAMAYOR1R-26-SPRA
Who will win the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?: Nithya Raman
KXLAMAYOR1R-26-NRAM
Who will win the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?: Karen Bass
KXLAMAYOR1R-26-KBAS
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass will receive the most votes in Los Angeles's non-partisan mayoral election's first round, currently priced at 38%. The current level reflects a competitive race with multiple viable candidates. Bass faces significant competition from Spencer Pratt, who is priced at 31%, with a runner-up candidate at 30%, indicating a fragmented field where no candidate has commanding support. Key factors driving this probability include Bass's incumbent advantage offset by potential voter dissatisfaction with homelessness and public safety issues, the strength of Pratt's fundraising and name recognition, and whether turnout favors establishment or anti-establishment candidates. The election results themselves will definitively resolve this outcome, providing the clearest catalyst for probability movement as voting data becomes available.
- ›Bass's incumbent advantage versus voter sentiment on homelessness and public safety performance in Los Angeles
- ›Spencer Pratt's fundraising totals and polling trajectory relative to Bass in recent surveys
- ›Fragmentation of the field with three candidates polling within 5-8 percentage points of each other
- ›Turnout composition and whether early/mail voting patterns favor establishment or anti-establishment candidates
- ›Endorsement patterns and late-stage campaign momentum in the weeks immediately preceding the election
What moved the line
- May 6Karen Bass↑25pp18→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Karen Bass↓17pp35→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Karen Bass↓14pp49→35¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Karen Bass↑11pp43→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Nithya Raman↓10pp32→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.