SimpleFunctions
6 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jun 22, 2026 · 44d

Will Rory Connor win Tewaaraton Award

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 6 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

14%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

14%

6 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$724

6 contracts

Closes

Jun 22, 2026

44 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 29% (27 days, 27 points)Aggregate: 29% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 6 contracts · 27d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Shawn Lyght win Tewaaraton Award

1 contract$374

Cluster 2

Will Joey Spallina win Tewaaraton Award

1 contract$333

Cluster 3

Will Owen Duffy win Tewaaraton Award

1 contract$18

Cluster 4

Will Nate Kabiri win Tewaaraton Award

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Willem Firth win Tewaaraton Award

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will McCabe Millon win Tewaaraton Award

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 22% probability reflects the market's assessment that Rory Connor will win the Tewaaraton Award, college lacrosse's highest individual honor. The relatively low odds suggest Connor faces significant competition from other elite players in the sport. The probability would likely shift based on his performance statistics through the spring season—goals, assists, ground balls, and defensive metrics—and how those compare to other top contenders. The award typically resolves in late May or early June, after the college lacrosse regular season concludes and the NCAA tournament completes, giving voters a full picture of player contributions throughout the year.

  • Rory Connor's goal and point production rate compared to consensus top candidates for the award
  • His defensive metrics and ground ball winning percentage relative to other elite attackmen and midfielders
  • Team performance and tournament success, as voters often weight individual talent within context of team results
  • Injury status or playing time availability through the remainder of the season
  • Strength of schedule remaining and visibility in nationally televised games against ranked opponents

What moved the line

  • May 6McCabe Millon11pp314¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Shawn Lyght3pp14¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Joey Spallina3pp5653¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Nate Kabiri3pp14¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Willem Firth3pp14¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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