Will Rory Connor win Tewaaraton Award
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$724
6 contracts
Closes
Jun 22, 2026
44 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Shawn Lyght win Tewaaraton Award
Will Shawn Lyght win Tewaaraton Award?: Shawn Lyght
KXLAXTEWAARATON-26-SLYG
Cluster 2
Will Joey Spallina win Tewaaraton Award
Will Joey Spallina win Tewaaraton Award?: Joey Spallina
KXLAXTEWAARATON-26-JSPA
Cluster 3
Will Owen Duffy win Tewaaraton Award
Will Owen Duffy win Tewaaraton Award?: Owen Duffy
KXLAXTEWAARATON-26-ODUF
Cluster 4
Will Nate Kabiri win Tewaaraton Award
Will Nate Kabiri win Tewaaraton Award?: Nate Kabiri
KXLAXTEWAARATON-26-NKAB
Cluster 5
Will Willem Firth win Tewaaraton Award
Will Willem Firth win Tewaaraton Award?: Willem Firth
KXLAXTEWAARATON-26-WFIR
Cluster 6
Will McCabe Millon win Tewaaraton Award
Will McCabe Millon win Tewaaraton Award?: McCabe Millon
KXLAXTEWAARATON-26-MMIL
Analysis
This 22% probability reflects the market's assessment that Rory Connor will win the Tewaaraton Award, college lacrosse's highest individual honor. The relatively low odds suggest Connor faces significant competition from other elite players in the sport. The probability would likely shift based on his performance statistics through the spring season—goals, assists, ground balls, and defensive metrics—and how those compare to other top contenders. The award typically resolves in late May or early June, after the college lacrosse regular season concludes and the NCAA tournament completes, giving voters a full picture of player contributions throughout the year.
- ›Rory Connor's goal and point production rate compared to consensus top candidates for the award
- ›His defensive metrics and ground ball winning percentage relative to other elite attackmen and midfielders
- ›Team performance and tournament success, as voters often weight individual talent within context of team results
- ›Injury status or playing time availability through the remainder of the season
- ›Strength of schedule remaining and visibility in nationally televised games against ranked opponents
What moved the line
- May 6McCabe Millon↑11pp3→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Shawn Lyght↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Joey Spallina↓3pp56→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Nate Kabiri↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Willem Firth↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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