Will the live cattle close price be above $261.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+4pp
23h ago
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 29, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will the gold close price be above 5013.99 usd/t.oz on may 29, 2026 at 5:00 pm edt
Analysis
This market asks whether live cattle futures will close above $261.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The 8% probability reflects market expectations that prices will remain below this threshold at that specific time. Live cattle prices are primarily driven by feed costs (especially corn and hay availability), herd size dynamics, and broader commodity market movements. The resolution depends on USDA livestock reports released throughout Q2 2026, cattle inventory data, and spot market trading activity as the April 30 settlement approaches. Feed cost pressures and processing demand in spring months will be key determinants of whether the contract settles in-the-money or out-of-the-money.
- ›USDA Livestock Quarterly reports (Q1 and Q2 2026) showing cattle inventory levels and herd composition
- ›Corn and hay futures prices in Q2 2026, which directly affect feedlot operating costs and producer willingness to sell
- ›Live cattle futures spot price trajectory from May through late April—current market pricing relative to the $261.99 strike level
- ›Weekly cattle slaughter data and processing capacity utilization rates, indicating supply pressure on the market
- ›Spring weather conditions affecting grazing conditions and feed availability, influencing seasonal price patterns
What moved the line
- May 3above $5013.99↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.