Lecornu out as French PM by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
28%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$30
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Lecornu out as French PM by
Lecornu out as French PM by...?: December 31, 2026
0x500848…5cc8
Analysis
The 27% probability reflects market participants' assessment that French Prime Minister François Lecornu will be removed from office by a specific date. Lecornu's tenure depends on maintaining government stability and parliamentary support, particularly given France's complex political landscape. The main drivers of this probability are parliamentary confidence votes, coalition dynamics with the National Assembly, and potential policy conflicts with President Macron's administration. Any significant legislative defeat or collapse of the governing coalition would increase removal likelihood, while successful passage of key legislation would reduce it. The upcoming parliamentary session calendar and scheduled confidence procedures represent critical junctures that could resolve uncertainty around his continuation in office. Market pricing suggests meaningful but not overwhelming removal risk within the specified timeframe.
- ›Parliamentary composition: France's current government coalition stability and the opposition's ability to force confidence votes through constitutional mechanisms
- ›Recent government performance: Legislative victories or defeats on key bills indicate whether Lecornu retains sufficient parliamentary backing
- ›Macron's political position: The President's authority to dismiss and replace the PM depends on maintaining his own political capital and coalition support
- ›Scheduled voting events: Dates of confidence votes, budget debates, or other structured parliamentary procedures where removal could be triggered
- ›Media reports on coalition friction: Public statements from coalition partners regarding government policy disputes or confidence in Lecornu's leadership
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (28% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.