LIV Golf Virginia
Leader sits at 81% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?:
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$161
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
29 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
LIV Golf Virginia
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-JRAH
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?: Bryson DeChambeau
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-BDEC
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Sergio Garcia finish top 5?: Sergio Garcia
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-SGAR
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-LHER
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Charles Howell III finish top 5?: Charles Howell III
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-CHOW
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Richard Bland finish top 5?: Richard Bland
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-RBLA
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Matthew Wolff finish top 5?: Matthew Wolff
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-MWOL
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Harold Varner III finish top 5?: Harold Varner III
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-HVAR
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Cameron Tringale finish top 5?: Cameron Tringale
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-CTRI
LIV Golf Virginia: Will David Puig finish top 5?: David Puig
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-DPUI
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Victor Perez finish top 5?: Victor Perez
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-VPER
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?: Joaquin Niemann
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-JNIE
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Sebastian Munoz finish top 5?: Sebastian Munoz
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-SMUN
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Marc Leishman finish top 5?: Marc Leishman
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-MLEI
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5?: Dustin Johnson
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-DJOH
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?: Tyrrell Hatton
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-THAT
LIV Golf Virginia: Will Dean Burmester finish top 5?: Dean Burmester
KXLIVTOP5-LIGV26-DBUR
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations that Jon Rahm will finish in the top 5 at the LIV Golf event in Virginia. At 55%, traders are pricing Rahm as a slight favorite among the field, though far from a dominant position. His price reflects his professional track record and recent form, balanced against field strength and course-specific variables. The market will adjust based on pre-tournament practice rounds, any injury updates, and final field confirmation. The event resolution occurs when the tournament concludes and final leaderboard positions are determined. Bryson DeChambeau's 33% contract suggests meaningful competition for top-5 finishes, while other team members trade substantially lower, indicating concentrated expectations among a few competitors.
- ›Jon Rahm's recent performance metrics and world ranking relative to the full tournament field
- ›Course history and statistical fit between Rahm's playing style and Virginia course setup
- ›Real-time injury reports or schedule changes between now and tournament tee time
- ›Relative performance of top competitors, particularly DeChambeau (33¢) and other named contenders in practice rounds
- ›Field depth and whether typical top-5 finishers are absent or competing at reduced capacity
What moved the line
- May 8Will David Puig finish top 5?: David Puig↓23pp35→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm↓19pp55→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?: Joaquin Niemann↓14pp27→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?: Bryson DeChambeau↓7pp34→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.