Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$774
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
77 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026
Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 7 or more
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-6T
Cluster 2
Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026
Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 6
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-6
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that more than six House Democrats will lose their primary elections in 2026. Primary losses typically occur when incumbents face strong challenges from within their party—often driven by ideological differences, redistricting changes, or local political dynamics. Currently trading at 46%, this reflects meaningful uncertainty about Democratic primary competitiveness. The outcome depends largely on the intensity of intra-party challenges, which can shift based on candidate recruitment, spending patterns, and emerging local controversies. Primary elections will occur throughout 2026, with results accumulating from early spring contests through summer. The final resolution will depend on counting all losses across state primaries and whether the total exceeds six.
- ›Historical baseline: Democrats averaged 2-4 House primary losses in recent cycles, so exceeding six represents a substantial uptick requiring notable change in party dynamics
- ›Redistricting effects from 2022 created new competitive primaries in some districts; how many feature serious intra-party challenges will be observable by mid-2026
- ›Incumbent retirement patterns: higher voluntary departures reduce primary contests, while crowded fields with sitting members increase loss likelihood
- ›National polarization intensity and whether specific policy divides (fiscal, foreign policy, social issues) drive coordinated primary challenges against sitting members
- ›Campaign finance and outside spending patterns: significant investment in primary challenges against Democrats would be visible in FEC filings by summer 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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