Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$623
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
130 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will exactly” vs “Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will exactly
Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 6
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-6
Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 5
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-5
Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 4
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-4
Cluster 2
Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026
Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 7 or more
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSED-26NOV03-6T
Analysis
This contract measures whether more than six House Democrats will lose their primaries during the 2026 election cycle. Currently priced at 11%, it reflects relatively low expected primary turnover among Democrats. Primary losses typically occur when incumbents face strong challengers from within their party due to redistricting changes, ideological challenges, or local electoral dynamics. The probability would move higher if multiple high-profile Democratic incumbents entered contested primary races, or lower if primary fields remain largely uncontested. The key driver of this outcome will be the actual primary results as they occur throughout spring and summer 2026, with early contests in key states like California, New York, and Illinois providing initial signals about the intensity of intra-party competition.
- ›Historical baseline: In recent House cycles, Democrats typically lose 2-4 primary incumbents; exceeding 6 would represent significantly elevated turnover
- ›Redistricting effects: Post-2020 redistricting is substantially complete; remaining map changes would be limited to special circumstances
- ›Incumbent challenges: Multiple Democratic representatives currently face primary challengers from the left or moderate wings; tracking active contests can indicate trajectory
- ›Early primary results: Primary elections begin in spring 2026; outcomes in March-April contests provide predictive information for later races
- ›Retirement rates: The number of Democratic retirements (which reduce primary loss count) remains uncertain and affects baseline denominator of contested seats
What moved the line
- Jun 247 or more↑9pp19→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 257 or more↑9pp28→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 244↓9pp17→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 246↑6pp14→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 225↓6pp26→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Favored for House in 2026, But Senate Battle Tight
The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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