Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract measures whether more than six House Democrats will lose their primaries during the 2026 election cycle. Currently priced at 11%, it reflects relatively low expected primary turnover among Democrats. Primary losses typically occur when incumbents face strong challengers from within their party due to redistricting changes, ideological challenges, or local electoral dynamics. The probability would move higher if multiple high-profile Democratic incumbents entered contested primary races, or lower if primary fields remain largely uncontested. The key driver of this outcome will be the actual primary results as they occur throughout spring and summer 2026, with early contests in key states like California, New York, and Illinois providing initial signals about the intensity of intra-party competition.

• ›Historical baseline: In recent House cycles, Democrats typically lose 2-4 primary incumbents; exceeding 6 would represent significantly elevated turnover
• ›Redistricting effects: Post-2020 redistricting is substantially complete; remaining map changes would be limited to special circumstances
• ›Incumbent challenges: Multiple Democratic representatives currently face primary challengers from the left or moderate wings; tracking active contests can indicate trajectory
• ›Early primary results: Primary elections begin in spring 2026; outcomes in March-April contests provide predictive information for later races
• ›Retirement rates: The number of Democratic retirements (which reduce primary loss count) remains uncertain and affects baseline denominator of contested seats

What moved the line

• May 62↑6pp7→13¢ · Kalshi
• May 66↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
• May 63↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds