Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
584 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Labour win the 2026 Makerfield by-election
Will Labour win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?: Labour
KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-LAB
Cluster 2
Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election
Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?: Restore Britain
KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-RES
Cluster 3
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Makerfield by-election
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?: Reform UK
KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-REF
What moved the line
- May 24Reform UK↑7pp25→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Reform UK↓6pp30→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Reform UK↓5pp32→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Labour↓4pp68→64¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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