Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 19% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$80M
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
$100M
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch
Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x91edbb…d958
Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x8f4e3d…7250
Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M
0xa2875a…f889
Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x666f70…85a6
Analysis
This contract estimates an 18% probability that Makina's fully diluted valuation reaches at least $100 million within one day of its token launch. The low probability reflects skepticism about achieving this valuation threshold in such a compressed timeframe, though related contracts show more confidence in higher valuations ($500M+) and lower thresholds ($50M) depending on the project. The outcome depends on launch momentum, initial trading volume, and market conditions on day one. Resolution occurs automatically when the token launches and trading data becomes available to calculate FDV. Discrepancies between this contract and related ones suggest market participants are pricing in meaningful uncertainty about how quickly initial valuations stabilize and whether early trading activity will sustain or dissipate.
- ›Launch date and time remain uncertain; resolution depends entirely on when Makina's token actually becomes tradeable on major exchanges
- ›Related contracts show the market assigns 44-89% probability to lower FDV thresholds ($50-500M) on day one, creating internal consistency to test
- ›Trading volume and initial buy pressure on launch day will primarily determine FDV calculation; extreme volatility in hour-one pricing creates measurement ambiguity
- ›Comparable token launches show highly variable day-one valuations; anchoring on $100M specifically suggests this threshold sits near the 15-20th percentile of historical outcomes
- ›Contract liquidity at $4,508 in 24h volume is modest relative to related markets, indicating limited consensus and potential for repricing if new information emerges
What moved the line
- May 3$300M↓19pp23→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$80M↑4pp18→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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