Marco Rubio visits China by...
Leader sits at 86% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
June 30
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$264
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Marco Rubio visits China by
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit China sometime before December 31, 2026. At 85%, traders view such a visit as highly likely within the remaining seven months, though not certain. The probability is driven by Rubio's role as the nation's top diplomat, which typically involves regular international travel and engagement with major powers, alongside recent shifts in U.S.-China relations that may necessitate high-level in-person discussions. The main factor that could lower this probability would be a significant deterioration in diplomatic relations or unexpected scheduling conflicts, while improved bilateral engagement could reinforce expectations. Resolution depends on an actual confirmed visit occurring before year-end, making any publicly announced trip the most likely near-term catalyst for clarity.
- ›Rubio's position as Secretary of State involves routine diplomatic engagement with major powers, historically making China visits standard protocol for the office
- ›Current geopolitical tensions and trade disputes between the U.S. and China create both incentive for high-level dialogue and potential barriers to formal visits
- ›Seven-month timeframe through December 31, 2026 provides substantial opportunity for scheduling, though diplomatic calendars are often unpredictable
- ›Public announcement of a scheduled visit would likely shift market probability materially and provide near-term resolution signal
- ›Alternative scenarios like visa denials, health issues, or escalating conflict could reduce probability, though none currently appear imminent based on available information
What moved the line
- May 2June 30↑12pp69→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 7June 30↑12pp63→75¢ · Polymarket
- May 6June 30↓10pp73→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 3June 30↓8pp81→73¢ · Polymarket
- May 6December 31↓8pp85→77¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (86% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In china
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.